

(1) Project background This project belongs to the field of power transmission and transformation equipment operation management. (2) Main scientific and technological content 1) Research on data mining of massive information. The project's funding scope includes all-round and full-process handover, operation, maintenance, defects, test data and information of transformers and circuit breaker equipment in more than 40 500kV substations in the power grid, covering all substations in the regional power grid that have been in operation for more than 10 years. Station, this is the first time in China that such a broad and in-depth funding collection has been made. Through statistical analysis and refinement of massive information, we can comprehensively grasp the laws of characteristic data and failure probability. 2) Research on equipment life assessment model based on condition evaluation technology. Drawing on the advanced concepts and practical experience of international equipment management, and based on the characteristics of key equipment in domestic power grids, it is proposed for the first time to establish a transformer life model based on state characteristic evaluation technology, a circuit breaker life model based on failure modeling and statistical estimation of probability parameters. The "state-life" prediction method based on data statistical rules and failure probability reasonably determines the composition and calculation method of the sub-model. 3) Research on several key and difficult points in modeling. Complete the probability analysis of short-circuit damage of transformers based on short-circuit current distribution; composite analysis of insulating oil including gas content, moisture, particle size and chargeability; maximum likelihood function parameter estimation considering circuit breaker failure and censored samples; Research on technical difficulties such as optimal operation and maintenance life estimation based on failure probability and related expenses, implement a sub-model revision method based on operating experience and Monte Carlo, and establish an overall equipment life assessment model. 4) Trinity equipment strategy research. Complete the full-process cost analysis of transformers and circuit breaker equipment in operation, and standardize equipment fault loss estimation methods. Based on the life assessment model, the management strategy principles based on life cycle technical and economic comparison are determined, and a trinity of "state-life-risk" equipment strategy formulation method is established. (3) Technical and economic indicators The transformer evaluation model includes four sub-models: electrical, mechanical, thermal and assembly accessories, covering 34 evaluation indicators such as dielectric loss, capacitance, insulation oil physics and chemistry, and chromatography. The circuit breaker evaluation model includes four categories, including SF6 leakage, operating mechanism abnormality, auxiliary component damage, main component degradation, secondary monitoring and protection abnormality, and 19 sub-categories of failure characteristic evaluation indicators. The systematicness and comprehensiveness of evaluation indicators ensure that the evaluation has higher credibility. (4) Application and evaluation of results The research results have been applied to the equipment management of Pingyao, Huangdu, and Yanggao 500kV substations, greatly improving the credibility of equipment life assessment and improving the scientificity of equipment maintenance, technical transformation and other management work. The application practice in 500kV key equipment shows that the effect is remarkable and the user feedback is good. Acceptance experts unanimously agreed that "the project results are at the international leading level." During the project research process, he participated in the compilation of 1 monograph and published more than 10 scientific and technological articles. Among them,"LIFE ASSESSMENT MODEL OF THE POWER TRANSFORMERS BASED ON CONDITION ASSESSMENT"(Research on Transformer Life Assessment Models Based on Condition Assessment Technology) was selected as a paper to be read at the ISH (International Power Grid Conference) 2011 conference.
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