Power supply reliability prediction of power grid in high-density load areas based on graph-model integration technology
Prediction and optimization of power supply reliability to ensure stable operation.
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Key innovations
The innovation of this project lies in: proposing micro power grid load classification, improving reliability evaluation algorithms, establishing sensitivity analysis models, optimizing index decomposition, and developing an integrated graph-model online prediction evaluation and optimization system.
Potential economic benefits
The cumulative economic benefits of this product reached 2.42 billion yuan, significantly reducing power outage losses (Shenzhen 2.11 billion yuan) and promoting safe and efficient production of enterprises.
Potential climate benefits
By optimizing power grid operation and improving power supply reliability, this technology can reduce energy transmission losses, reduce ineffective power production, and indirectly reduce fuel consumption. At the same time, a more stable power grid will facilitate a high proportion of access to renewable energy, replace traditional fossil fuel power generation, and achieve carbon reduction.
Solution supplier
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Shanghai Jiaotong University
Shanghai Jiao Tong University is a top university in China, committed to cultivating outstanding talents, leading scientific and technological innovation, and serving national strategic development.
Shanghai，China
Solution details
- Project background
The relationship between economic development and electricity demand is very close. In recent years, some large cities in my country, such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, etc., have experienced continuous economic development and power demand has also continued to grow. In order to ensure the needs of economic development and smart grid construction, the requirements for power supply reliability have gradually increased. At the same time, it should be noted that the load density in economically developed areas in my country is generally high, but there is still a certain gap between the reliability of power grid power supply and that of developed countries and regions. Therefore, it is a very meaningful task to accurately predict and evaluate the power supply reliability in economically developed (high-density load) areas in my country, discover weak links in power supply reliability, and optimize reliability. - Main research contents of this project
First, the electricity demand in economically developed areas in my country is analyzed, and the load characteristics are further described in detail; On the basis of the above research, the prediction, evaluation and optimization models and algorithms for planning and operating power supply reliability of power grids are studied, and the sensitivity of outage rates, outage times, and connection methods of various power grids on the impact of reliability indicators are analyzed, and the marginal benefits and benefit-cost ratios of reliability are calculated to improve reliability, thereby providing suggestions for the optimization control of power supply reliability in each power supply subdivision or substation; Finally, a power supply reliability prediction, evaluation and optimization software system based on graph-model integration technology is developed. - Key innovations of this project
- Through the load characteristic vector and indicator description, establish a load characteristic classification method different from traditional industry classification, which is more suitable for more "micro" regional power grids;
- An improved minimum path algorithm is proposed for predicting and evaluating the power supply reliability of planning and operating power grids, which eliminates the need for network equivalence, which greatly improves the efficiency of online reliability analysis;
- Conduct sensitivity analysis on the power supply reliability of load points based on quantitative indicators of equipment outage and power grid connection methods, establish a sensitivity numerical algorithm model for power supply reliability analysis, and identify key factors and links that affect power supply reliability;
- Decompose the reliability indicators of the entire network, establish an optimal decomposition model of the reliability indicators, and reasonably allocate the reliability planning indicators to each power supply area or responsible department to provide a basis for reliability optimization control;
- Based on graph-model integration technology, an online power supply reliability prediction, evaluation and optimization system has been developed that can interface with existing automation systems. It can quickly and accurately perform online calculation and analysis of power supply reliability and is easy to maintain.
- Economic and social benefits of this project and its effect on scientific and technological progress
The key technologies and software systems of this project were jointly developed by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Electric Power University, Shanghai Boying Information Technology Co., Ltd., China Electric Power Academy, State Grid Economic Research Institute and other units. They have been promoted and applied in my country's economically developed and high-density load regional power grids-Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangdong and other regions, and achieved very good application results, with cumulative economic benefits reaching 2.42 billion yuan, especially due to the improvement of the power supply reliability of the power grid. Power outage losses have been greatly reduced (Shenzhen Power Supply Company alone accounted for 2.11 billion yuan). In addition, the technology of this project has also been applied in Hunan, Anhui, Hebei, Heilongjiang and other regions; it has published 5 books and published 64 academic papers, including 45 EI/SCI searches, and he cited more than 1000 times; applied for and authorized 24 invention patents and utility model patents, and 10 software copyrights. Due to the implementation of this project, decision support has been provided for the planning, maintenance and operation of the power grid, greatly improving the working efficiency of reliability management and power supply reliability indicators, which is conducive to the safe and efficient production of enterprises, and also conducive to maintaining people's normal living order and social harmony, with good social benefits.
Last updated
01:01:04, Nov 08, 2025
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